Jaguars vs Broncos Picks, Odds, Predictions, and Player Props for Week 2
Betting

Jaguars vs Broncos Picks, Odds, Predictions, and Player Props for Week 2

Justin Carlucci breaks down the Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Denver Broncos matchup from a betting perspective with predictions, picks, and prop bets.

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The Jaguars head to Denver after looking like one of the league’s hottest offenses in Week 1. Jacksonville had its way with Cleveland, while the Broncos are trying to regroup from an embarrassing loss at Arrowhead in a short-week spot that could not have looked much worse.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Denver Broncos Betting Odds for Week 2

Spread: Broncos -2.5 (-118, DraftKings)
Moneyline: Broncos -148; Jaguars +124
Game Total: Over 45.5 (-108), Under 45.5 (-112)

Jacksonville was firing on all cylinders against Cleveland last week. The Jaguars posted the second-best EPA per play in the NFL, Trevor Lawrence looked comfortable, and the offense never really needed to take its foot off the gas after taking control.

Now, it is very possible Cleveland is just the worst team in football, and there is only so much we can take from one game. But it was still an extremely impressive start for the Jaguars.

Denver was the complete opposite.

The Broncos went to Arrowhead and put together an absolutely dreadful offensive performance in their loss to Kansas City. The Chiefs posted the best defensive EPA per play in football in Week 1, and Bo Nix did not look good. Denver struggled to complete passes, struggled to sustain drives, and then made things even worse with a defensive effort that was just atrocious.

Kenneth Walker ran all over them in his Chiefs debut. Denver missed an unbelievable number of tackles. Nobody wanted to tackle. I cover high school football on the side, and honestly, it looked like a junior varsity—or maybe even middle school—effort in that department.

It was bad.

Prediction & Pick for Jaguars vs. Broncos Week 2 Matchup

The Pick: Broncos -2.5 (-118, FanDuel)

This line stinks.

Jacksonville looked great in Week 1. Denver looked terrible, and now they’re coming off a short week. The Jaguars finished second in EPA per play, while the Broncos were dead last offensively. If you are just comparing Week 1 results, the advanced analytics say this line should not be Denver -2.5, and the eye test definitely agreed.

But Vegas knows best.

Mile High remains one of the toughest places to play. Sean Payton, Vance Joseph, and the entire Broncos staff hold this group to a high standard. I would expect Denver to regroup, look itself in the mirror, and play with a little bit more pride at home.

That does not mean Bo Nix suddenly turns into an elite quarterback. It does not mean the Broncos solve every offensive issue in four days. But the effort should be better, the tackling almost has to be better, and Denver should be far more competitive than it was in Kansas City.

Jacksonville won in Denver last season, and the Jaguars clearly have the more encouraging offensive rhythm coming into this game. But that is almost why I am willing to hold my nose and take the Broncos.

This is one of those numbers where everything screams Jacksonville, and yet Denver is still favored.

It was just one game last week, right?...right?

Give me Broncos -2.5, painfully.

Best Player Prop Bet for Jaguars vs. Broncos

Trevor Lawrence Anytime Touchdown (+360, DraftKings)

I’m taking Trevor Lawrence to score a touchdown.

Lawrence scored in a similar spot against the Broncos last season, and he finished last year with nine rushing touchdowns. He also scrambled 43 times and added seven designed quarterback runs, so this is not a quarterback who needs a broken play or some bizarre goal-line situation to get into the end zone.

There is a real opportunity here.

Denver blitzed at a top-five rate last season, and while we should not expect Lawrence to have things come nearly as easily as they did against Cleveland, that aggressive defensive style can create lanes for mobile quarterbacks. If the Broncos continue to bring pressure, Lawrence should have chances to escape and make something happen with his legs.

Denver was around league average in EPA allowed on opposing quarterback scrambles last year, and a good number of quarterbacks were able to pick up rushing production against this defense. Lawrence does not have to run all over Denver for this to work. He needs one red-zone keeper, one scramble near the goal line, or one designed run in a competitive game.

That is the key part for me.

Vegas is telling us this should be competitive. If Jacksonville is in scoring range late, Lawrence has both the athleticism and the established rushing usage to steal a touchdown himself.

We just saw Patrick Mahomes technically run the football in twice on back-to-back plays in the red zone against the Broncos in Week 1.

I really like the price here.

Players Mentioned in this Article

  1. Trevor Lawrence
    TrevorLawrence
    QBJACJAC
    PPG
    26.1
    Proj
    17.0

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