Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts Picks, Odds, Predictions, and Player Props for Week 3

Talk about tough sledding. Both the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts kicked off the year with a pair of tough matchups, jockeying with the likes of Buffalo, Cincinnati, Baltimore and Kansas City. With positive regression looming large, Week 3 will give us clarity on the state of both teams, with the winner securing the edge in the AFC South standings.

Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Odds For Week 3

• Spread: Texans -2.5 (-115, DraftKings)
• Moneyline: Texans (-142, DraftKings)
• Game Total: 42.5 (Over -110/Under -110, Fanatics)

Heading into the year, the Texans were expected to round back into form on offense to help complement a dominant defense, making them one of my favorite picks to win the Super Bowl. Two games into the year, the Texans have yet to look the part, ranking well below league average in offensive and defensive EPA.

While Houston’s stumble can be attributed to the quality of opponents, it’s still alarming to see how much of a step back the defense has taken, a unit that rivaled the Seattle Seahawks last season in defensive DVOA.

With Daniel Jones struggling to recapture the same success he had last year before he went down with a season-ending injury, the Texans will have a great opportunity to shake off the rust and shut down the Colts offense. Oddsmakers are in agreement with that sentiment, listing the Texans as the favorite.

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Prediction & Pick For Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts Week 3 Matchup

• The Pick: Texans -2.5 (-115, DraftKings)

Even with health back on his side, Jones has been abysmal under center, entering Week 3 ranked 23rd out of 32 qualified QBs in EPA per play and in CPOE while averaging just 5.9 air yards per reception. With Jones struggling to air out the ball, the Colts have become overly reliant on Jonathan Taylor to keep them afloat, stalling out drives early in the possession.

Jones' regression is even more stunning when factoring in the protection he receives from his offensive line, a group that ranks second overall in true pass set grade. When the Colts are unable to ward off pressure, Jones' injury has affected his mobility, making it difficult for him to escape the pocket.

Unfortunately for Jones, his struggles in the pocket will be on full display against the Texans while trying to scramble away from a defensive line that is poised to bounce back after a sluggish start to the year. When forced to throw under duress, Jones will generate turnover-worthy plays at a higher rate, resulting in an early out which will spot the Texans generous field position.

After giving up the ball, the Colts will be unable to get the Texans off the field in short order, fielding a defense that hovers near the bottom of the board in defensive EPA, DVOA and success rate. If you want to diversify your risk, place a separate wager on the Colts to be held under the team total if it climbs up to a flat 21.

Best Player Prop Bet For Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts

Jonathan Taylor - u78.5 Rushing Yards (-115, bet365)

Even when receiving minimal support from Jones, Taylor has still been able to hit the ground running, leading the Colts to top-seven marks in rush EPA and success rate while averaging nearly 100 rushing yards per game. When given the nod, Taylor has been efficient with his carries, hovering in the top half of the position in yards over expected per attempt.

Against the Texans, expect Taylor to fall back down to reality while consistently fighting off contact in the backfield. Once slowed down, the Texans LBs will be able to effectively crash down on the running lane and bottle him up, holding Taylor to minimal gains with each carry. The Texans' ability to leave the secondary on an island without fear of getting burned over the top will also allow them to stack the box, giving them extra bodies to neutralize Taylor.