Falcons vs Saints Picks, Odds, Predictions, and Player Props for MNF Week 4
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Falcons vs Saints Picks, Odds, Predictions, and Player Props for MNF Week 4

Kody Malstrom breaks down the Falcons vs Saints Week 4 Monday Night Football matchup from a betting perspective.

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Just when it looked like Atlanta’s season was doomed a quarter into the year, Michael Penix was able to rejuvenate the offense, turning the Falcons into a well-rounded unit. With the New Orleans Saints on deck, Penix will have the opportunity to build on his momentum and take sole possession of first in the NFC South.

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints Betting Odds For Week 4

  • Spread: Saints -2.5 (-105, FanDuel)
  • Moneyline: Saints (-125, Fanatics)
  • Game Total: 48 (Over -110/Under -110, bet365)

It cannot be overstated how horrific the Falcons were on offense while Cooper Rush and Jack Strand were under center, ranking dead last by a wide margin in offensive DVOA. Both QBs were abysmal in their brief time on the field, plummeting to the bottom of the board in QB EPA per play.

With Penix back from injury, the Falcons were able to round back into form, routing the Green Bay Packers 35-14. While the quality of defense is worth noting, it was still impressive to see Penix quickly shake off the rust while completing 72% of his passes.

Even after Atlanta’s impressive win over Green Bay, oddsmakers have tempered their expectations, listing the Falcons as a short underdog against the Saints. Bettors are far more optimistic, steaming Atlanta down to +1.5 in some sportsbooks. With New Orleans struggling against the pass, Penix will be able to march down the field by picking apart the secondary, improving the Falcons' probability of clearing the over on the team total.

Prediction & Pick For Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints Week 4 Matchup

  • The Pick: Falcons Team Total o23.5 (-111, Caesars)

While the sample size is small, Penix looked great in his first game back from injury, torching the Packers for 254 yards while climbing into the top 5 in QB EPA per play, success rate, and CPOE. Even though his lack of mobility raises red flags over his season-long outlook, Penix has been able to mask it with his arm while surrounded by a talented group of skill players.

In a divisional matchup against the Saints, Penix will be able to continue to air out the ball by attacking a secondary that resides in the bottom ten in dropback success rate. With New Orleans struggling to keep a defender on the pass catcher's hips, Penix will be able to shred the Saints for sizable gains with each throw, making it easier for the Falcons to stay ahead of the sticks.

When in scoring position, the Saints' back end has been unable to take advantage of the shortened field, grading out equally as poor in dropback EPA allowed per play. With the width of Penix’s passing lanes unscathed, the amount of havoc in his throws will decline, turning scoring opportunities into points on the board.

On the other side of the ball, Atlanta has been dominant on defense, fielding a group that rivals the top of the board in defensive DVOA and in EPA. With Alvin Kamara incapable of pulling defensive attention to the middle, the Falcons will be able to anchor LBs in coverage and disrupt Tyler Shough’s passes for the full duration of the contest.

Best Player Prop Bet For Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints

Bijan Robinson - o128.5 Rush+Receiving Yards (-115, bet365)

Since the start of the regular season, Bijan Robinson has been one of the more versatile RBs in the league, generating a total of 140 yards of offense per game. Even when Rush and Strand were unable to stretch out the opposing defense, Robinson was still able to fight off contact while averaging 5.3 yards per carry.

With the Saints' front seven ranking 31st in defensive rush success rate, Robinson will face minimal resistance in his efforts to reach the second level, increasing his chances of creating an explosive play. In the rare instance the Saints are able to smother Penix’s windows, Robinson will be the recipient of a dump-off, creating multiple paths to clear the over on his rush+receiving prop.

Players Mentioned in this Article

  1. Bijan Robinson
    BijanRobinson
    RBATLATL
    PPG
    17.8
    Proj
    18.8

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