College Gameday Game of the Week Pick, Odds and Prediction: Houston vs. Utah
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College Gameday Game of the Week Pick, Odds and Prediction: Houston vs. Utah

Kody Malstrom breaks down the Houston vs. Utah College Gameday Game of the Week, with betting picks, odds, predictions and a player prop bet.

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Fresh off an exciting upset in Provo, the College GameDay crew stays in the state of Utah with the Utes hosting Houston in a highly anticipated Big 12 tilt. 

After losing to Texas Tech earlier in the year, the Cougars can ill afford to drop another conference game if they want to remain in contention for the Big 12 title, raising the stakes heading into Saturday.

Let's take a look at this Big-12 showdown from a betting perspective. 

Houston vs. Utah Betting Odds For Week 8

  • Spread: Utah -6.5 (-112, BetMGM)
  • Moneyline: Utah (-230, theScore Bet)
  • Game Total: 57.5 (Over -110/Under -110, FanDuel)

Kicking off the year 6-0, Utah has built a strong case for being the best team in the Big 12 while hovering near the top of the board in most offensive metrics. Devon Dampier has played a major role in the Utes' success this season, generating over 250 yards of offense per game.

On the other side of the ball, the Utes have quietly been just as productive on defense, ranking in the top 25 in success rate and finishing drives. With both sides playing at a high level, Utah is able to reduce the amount of variance in the contest while improving the probability of winning.

In a conference matchup against Houston, Dampier and company will have a great opportunity to light up the scoreboard by attacking a secondary that has underwhelmed in coverage. Oddsmakers are in agreement, listing the Utes at -6.5, with some sportsbooks climbing to a flat -7.

Prediction & Pick For Houston vs. Utah Week 8 Matchup

  • The Pick: Utah -6.5 (-112, BetMGM)

Even though Houston is currently 3-1 in conference play, the Cougars can shake up the title picture with a win over Utah. Securing the victory is vital for Houston’s chances of playing in the Big 12 title game, especially with the Red Raiders possessing the tiebreaker from their win earlier in the year.

Unfortunately for the Cougars, the defense will continue to hold them back from being a well-rounded unit, limping into Week 8 ranked outside the top 100 in explosiveness and points per opportunity. While Houston is able to create havoc at a high rate, the secondary is vulnerable to getting beat over the top when the defensive line cannot get home, forcing the Cougars to play in fast-paced track meets.

With Devon Dampier’s running ability forcing Houston to spy LBs near the edge, Utah’s pass catchers will have more room to work on the outside to help break away from the coverage. Fewer bodies near the point of contact will also lead to a higher completion percentage, making it easier for the Utes to stay ahead of the sticks.

On the other side of the ball, Conner Weigman’s conservative throws will make it difficult to march down the field while trying to pick apart a Utes defense that resides in the top half of the board in defensive pass success rate. When held behind the sticks, the Cougars lack the big-play ability that is needed to make up ground, ranking 127th in explosiveness.

Best Player Prop Bet For Houston vs Utah

Devon Dampier - o232.5 Passing Yards (-114, FanDuel)

Not only does Houston’s defense give up explosive plays through the air at an alarming rate, but the second level has also struggled to hold opposing pass catchers in front of the sticks, entering the weekend ranked 76th in success rate. When Dampier is able to cut the distance to gain in half, Utah’s probability of converting grows to help keep their drives alive, leading to a higher volume of pass attempts.

With Wayshawn Parker also averaging nearly 7.0 yards per carry, the Utes RB will help pull defensive attention to the middle, leaving Houston’s corners on islands. While left alone in single coverage, Dampier’s passing lanes on the outside will widen, chipping away at his total number of turnover-worthy plays.

To help diversify your risk while minimizing the total amount risked, escalator bet the over on Dampier’s passing yardage prop by placing smaller wagers on his alternate totals.

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