College Football Best Bets for Week 2: Can Oklahoma Keep Michigan at Bay?
Betting

College Football Best Bets for Week 2: Can Oklahoma Keep Michigan at Bay?

Kody Malstrom breaks down his three best college football bets for Week 2, including angles on Oklahoma versus Michigan and Iowa State versus Iowa.

Published

Week 2 is littered with lopsided matchups, but there are still a few markets that stick out, including a spread on the decline after bettors reacted to Michigan’s underwhelming performance against Western Michigan. 

Later in the night, we turn our attention toward Iowa with the Hawkeyes facing off against Iowa State as sizable favorites to cover the spread.

Here are my favorite college football bets for Week 2.

College Football Best Bets for Week 2

Oklahoma (-5) vs. Michigan (-110, Caesars)

With continuity at all three levels of the field, the Oklahoma Sooners are expected to take a step forward with their production on defense this season, turning them into a viable contender for the national championship. While their Week 1 matchup against UTEP gives us little to go on, it was still welcome to see how well they played, finishing the contest ranked in the top 10 in defensive finishing drives and hard stops.

On the other side of the ball, John Mateer was able to flash his arm, throwing for 225 yards and three touchdowns. While his completion percentage could be better, any improvement is massive in the Sooners' ability to compete with the top contenders, desperately needing to reduce the amount of negative variance in their favor if they want to make a run at the title.

Fortunately for the Sooners, their defense will give them a great opportunity to pull away on the scoreboard in their matchup against Michigan, suffocating an offense that ranks well below league average in pass success rate and rush explosiveness. With the Wolverines' RBs incapable of pulling Oklahoma’s LBs to the middle, they will fail to create the space Bryce Underwood needs to connect with his pass catchers on the outside.

Iowa State vs. Iowa (-13.5) (-115, Fanatics)

Death, taxes and Iowa excelling on defense. Even after going through an overhaul, the Hawkeyes were able to play at a very high level on that side of the ball, entering Week 2 ranked sixth overall in defensive success rate and fifth in finishing drives. Their relentless pressure forced Northern Illinois into early outs, giving themselves generous field possession in the process.

Speaking of overhauls, Iowa State’s departures have thrown a wrench into their ability to compete on offense, falling to the bottom of the board in offensive EPA and explosiveness. Jaylen Raynor severely underwhelmed in his debut with the Cyclones, throwing for 50 yards while completing just 50% of his passes against the lowly Southeast Missouri State Redhawks.

In the battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy, Iowa’s pressure in the interior will force Raynor to weave the ball into tight windows, making it difficult for the Cyclones QB to stay ahead of the sticks. Once stalled out, the Hawkeyes' ability to methodically move the ball down the field will help them control the time of possession, chipping away at Iowa State’s total number of scoring opportunities.

Western Kentucky vs. Georgia (1H -23.5) (-115, Fanatics)

Arguably the most impressive performance from any top contender, Georgia currently leads the nation in success rate after Gunnar Stockton completed nearly all 16 of his passes en route to a 63-3 win over Tennessee State. When inside the 40, points were put up on the board at a high rate, climbing into the top 15 in finishing drives.

Heading into Week 2’s matchup against Western Kentucky, expect the Bulldogs to build on their momentum by taking advantage of a defense that struggles to hold opponents out of scoring position, a group that ranks 130th in PPO. If you want to diversify your risk, bet the Bulldogs to clear the over of 48.5 on their team total as well.

Published