Chiefs vs Dolphins Odds, Predictions, Picks, and Player Props for Week 3
Betting

Chiefs vs Dolphins Odds, Predictions, Picks, and Player Props for Week 3

Justin Carlucci breaks down the matchup between the Chiefs and Dolphins from a betting perspective, including picks, predictions, and a player prop bet.

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The Chiefs head to Miami as rightfully ginormous favorites. Kansas City is 2-0 after a dominant win over Denver and an overtime win against Indianapolis, while the Dolphins are still trying to find any sort of offensive identity.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Odds for Week 3

Spread: Chiefs -10.5 (-112)
Moneyline: Chiefs -650; Dolphins +470
Game Total: Over 45.5 (-115), Under 45.5 (-105)

Kansas City has started the season exactly how it wants to play: run the ball, throw when it has to, let Patrick Mahomes take over when the moment calls for it, and play enough defense to get out with a win.

The Chiefs dismantled Denver in Week 1, then squeaked out an overtime win over Indianapolis in Week 2. Both games came at Arrowhead, but Mahomes looked much sharper against the Colts. Whatever rust showed up in the opener seemed to disappear quickly.

Kenneth Walker has been a massive part of that.

Walker looks like the best running back Kansas City has had in a long, long time. You would probably have to go back to prime Kareem Hunt—and maybe even earlier—to find a Chiefs runner with this combination of juice, vision, and big-play ability. Are we talking Jamaal Charles? Larry Johnson? Priest Holmes? Walker is in some pretty exclusive company when it comes to talent in the Kansas City backfield over the last two decades.

That matters against Miami.

Walker is -225 to score a touchdown this week and +255 to score twice. Those are extremely short prices, but they tell you exactly how oddsmakers expect this game script to go.

Prediction & Pick for Chiefs vs. Dolphins Week 3 Matchup

The Pick: Chiefs -10.5 (-112)

I’m not deterred by the hook here.

Ten and a half is a big number, obviously, especially on the road in South Florida, where weird things can happen. But I think this line should be closer to Chiefs -13.5. The talent gap is real, and Miami has not shown anything through two weeks that makes me want to believe it can keep pace with Kansas City.

Malik Willis is fun for fantasy. He can keep plays alive, he has a big arm, and he has the athleticism to become a real difference-maker if Miami develops him correctly.

But I don’t think Bobby Slowik is doing him any favors right now.

Willis has just one designed quarterback rushing attempt through two games. One. That is inexcusable to me. That’s one of Willis’ biggest strengths, especially with Miami lacking high-end talent across the offense.

Miami has some young receivers who have flashed, but I am not sure they are ready to consistently dominate against a team like Kansas City. There are a lot of moving pieces and a lot of growing to do, and there are going to be growing pains.

The Chiefs' defense has not been perfect. Indianapolis put up points last week, and some individual players, including L’Jarius Sneed, have not had their best starts. But Kansas City is still slightly above league average in defensive EPA per play, and the overall unit has been better than the box scores might suggest.

I think the Chiefs make Miami one-dimensional, force Willis into difficult passing situations, and lean on the run game once they get ahead.

Give me Chiefs -10.5.

Best Player Prop Bet for Chiefs vs. Dolphins

Xavier Worthy Anytime Touchdown (+170, DraftKings)

Walker is the obvious touchdown favorite, but the number is way too short for my liking. I would rather take a shot on Xavier Worthy at plus money.

Worthy has the second-highest target rate on Kansas City through two weeks, and he is tied for the team lead in first-read rate.

The role is not just about traditional wide receiver targets, either.

Worthy can get an end-around. He can get a screen. He can get some weird motion play that Reid has been saving for the red zone. Kansas City has plenty of ways to manufacture touches for him, especially once the offense gets inside the 10-yard line.

Against a Dolphins defense that should have a hard time matching Kansas City’s physicality and overall offensive depth, I think Worthy has multiple paths to finding the end zone.

At +170, I am interested.

Players Mentioned in this Article

  1. Xavier Worthy
    XavierWorthy
    WRKCKC
    PPG
    7.2
    Proj
    8.5

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