Bills vs Rams Odds, Picks, Predictions, and Player Props for MNF Week 5
Betting

Bills vs Rams Odds, Picks, Predictions, and Player Props for MNF Week 5

Kody Malstrom breaks down the Monday Night Football matchup between the Bills and Rams from a betting perspective, including a prop bet on Kyren Williams.

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Even though the Los Angeles Rams were able to squeak out the win, they still looked flat against the Philadelphia Eagles. With the Buffalo Bills on deck, the Rams will have a great opportunity to iron out the kinks by taking advantage of a defense that has been consistently gashed since the start of the season.

Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Rams Betting Odds For Week 5

  • Spread: Rams -3 (-120, DraftKings)
  • Moneyline: Rams (-170, theScore Bet)
  • Game Total: 54.5 (Over -115/Under -105, DraftKings)

While the Rams have underperformed per preseason expectations, the offense being able to hover in the top 15 in EPA per play while Puka Nacua was out with an injury is worth noting. With Nacua back in the fold, opposing defenses are forced to shade toward the star WR, creating more space for the Rams' supporting cast to exploit.

With positive regression looming large over the offense, the Rams will be able to avoid playing in highly volatile contests, improving the probability of winning on a weekly basis. Myles Garrett has also been on IR, making the Rams even more formidable once he is able to make his return from injury.

In a potential Super Bowl preview, oddsmakers are siding with the Rams to secure the pivotal win over the Buffalo Bills, listing them at the key number of -3. Bettors are in agreement with the opener, steaming the Rams up to -3.5 in some sportsbooks.

Prediction & Pick For Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Rams Week 5 Matchup

  • The Pick: Rams -3 (-120, DraftKings)

While Josh Allen has hogged the spotlight, the Bills' lack of production on defense has been able to fly under the radar. The Bills have not been just bad on defense; they have been putrid, limping into Week 5 ranked near dead last in EPA allowed per play and in DVOA.

Even with the defensive line generating pressure at a high rate, the second level has been unable to take advantage of the uptick in havoc, plummeting to 27th in success rate. By allowing Matthew Stafford to pick apart the gaps in coverage, the Bills will be unable to hold Los Angeles in front of the sticks, making it easier for the Rams to march down the field.

Speaking of Stafford, the reigning MVP has started to get into a groove after an abysmal start to the year, climbing back into the top 16 in QB EPA per play while averaging 10.1 air yards. While turnovers have been an issue, Nacua’s return to the field will help Stafford chip away at his total number of turnover-worthy plays while throwing into wider passing lanes.

When inside the red zone, Davante Adams will be able to reclaim last year’s role as Stafford’s go-to target while Nacua pulls defensive attention toward the opposite side of the field, turning scoring opportunities into points on the board to help pull away from the Bills. If the Rams cross through the key number of -3, reduce the size of your wager with a stop point at -4.

Best Player Prop Bet For Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Rams

Kyren Williams - o67.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)

Even though Kyren Williams has seen his usage steadily decline due to the emergence of Blake Corum, he has still been able to make the most of his workload, ranking in the top 10 in yards over expected per attempt. By consistently reaching the second level of the defense, Williams' chances of creating an explosive play increase, leading to sizable gains with each carry.

In a favorable matchup against the Bills, Williams will be able to continue to flip the field position in a flash by gashing a front seven that struggles to stop the run, per well below league-average marks in defensive rush DVOA, EPA, and success rate. The Rams are also expected to play with a lead late in the second half per the current spread, potentially leading to a more conservative run-heavy game script.

Players Mentioned in this Article

  1. Kyren Williams
    KyrenWilliams
    RBLARLAR
    PPG
    19.8
    Proj
    14.8

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