Anytime TD Scorer Bets for Week 4: Michael Wilson and More

There are a few touchdown spots I’m really interested in for Week 4, and they all come back to the same thing: high-value roles near the goal line. It’s easy to chase a player after a big box score, but I’m much more interested in who is actually on the field when the offense gets inside the 20 and, more importantly, inside the five.

Anytime TD Scorer Bets Week 4

Michael Wilson Anytime Touchdown

Odds: +220, FanDuel

The weather may not be ideal at MetLife. That’s worth noting. But the role is just too good, and I think the matchup gives Michael Wilson enough paths to score that I’m willing to live with potentially messy conditions.

Wilson got paid this offseason, and he has quickly become one of Arizona’s most important offensive players. He just does not come off the field.

Through three weeks, he owns a 25% target share and a massive 42% air-yards share. Then, there’s the red-zone role.

Wilson has played all 36 of Arizona's snaps inside the 20-yard line this season. He has also played all nine snaps inside the five.

That is exactly what I want to see.

Trey McBride and Wilson are the featured pass catchers, and I think Wilson can get there on a downfield shot, a designed red-zone look, or simply because he is on the field every time Arizona gets close.

At +220, I think it is a really nice price.

Brenton Strange Anytime Touchdown

Odds: +260, FanDuel

I’m also going to Brenton Strange.

Strange has one of the best red-zone roles on the entire Week 4 slate. He doesn’t have the biggest overall target share, and I’m not going to pretend he is suddenly Jacksonville’s No. 1 receiver. He owns a 12% target share, but he ranks third on the team in routes.

But this is a role bet.

Strange has played all 13 of Jacksonville’s snaps inside the 10-yard line through three weeks. That includes all seven snaps inside the five. He also leads the Jaguars with an 88% snap share inside the 20.

You really cannot ask for much more.

Jacksonville gets Cincinnati in what should be one of the better scoring environments of the weekend. The Bengals are banged up in the secondary, and I think the Jaguars should have enough success to get into scoring range multiple times.

Strange already has a couple of targets inside the 20, so at +260, I’m very interested. If you want to get more aggressive, Strange is also +1800 to score first on FanDuel.

Rachaad White Anytime Touchdown

Odds: TBD, FanDuel

Rachaad White is the injury-dependent touchdown bet I’m watching most closely.

White didn’t practice Thursday because of a shoulder injury, so his FanDuel number is currently off the board. We have to monitor his status. But if he plays, I like him a lot.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt has handled more overall snaps and more of the between-the-20s work for Washington. But White has clearly been the better situational player near the goal line.

Through three weeks, Croskey-Merritt has played only three of Washington’s 16 snaps inside the 10-yard line. White has played 10. Inside the five, Croskey-Merritt has played one of nine snaps, while White has played six.

The rushing-attack chess match is interesting between the Commanders and Colts. Washington leads the league in zone-run concepts under offensive coordinator David Blough, and the Colts have struggled badly against those runs. Indianapolis has allowed the fifth-highest success rate against zone concepts while giving up 5.49 yards per carry.

If White is active, I want him for a touchdown.

If he’s ruled out, Croskey-Merritt becomes the obvious pivot. He should inherit more of that high-value work by default, and I think he would be in an awesome spot against this Colts front.