3 Teams To Watch Before NFL Schedule Release: Saints Marching To Top Of NFC South?

The NFL schedule release has become a big event in recent years. The networks have a big release event, the NFL teams get involved on social media. In a time where football fans are starved for content, it can feel like an oasis in the desert.

But the truth is, we already know all 272 regular-season games for the upcoming season. That’s not to say that the schedule release doesn’t matter; it 100% does. Things like rest and travel advantages are real, and we won’t be able to make our final determinations until we know when and where each team is playing each week.

However, we can get an early start. Since we already know who each team is playing, we can get a jump on targeting “trendy” teams in the betting market.

This piece will focus primarily on strength of schedule, which is determined by looking at each team’s win total over/under. A team with an “easy” schedule will face a bunch of teams with low win totals. A team with a “hard” schedule sees the opposite. It’s much more indicative of actual strength of schedule than going primarily off how each team finished the previous season.

Let’s dive into a few teams to consider targeting in the betting market before the actual schedule gets released.

NFL Team Betting Odds Before NFL Schedule Release

New Orleans Saints: A Team On The Rise

Win Total Over/Under: 7.5 (Over -120; Under +105)
To Win the NFC South: +340
To Win the NFC: +4500
To Win the Super Bowl: +10000

The best part about the NFL is that a team can make a jump from worst to first at a rapid pace. The 17-game regular season means there’s a lot of variance from year-to-year; it’s not like the 162-game grind of the MLB or 82-game grinds of the NBA and NHL. It wouldn’t be possible for the Rockies to outpace the Dodgers over 162 games, but over 17? That’s definitely doable.

The Saints are one team that can be poised to make a “worst to first” type of jump this season, a la the Patriots last season. It starts with a second-year quarterback who was impressive in his first. It might feel egregious to compare Tyler Shough to Drake Maye, but remember that Maye was far from an MVP candidate before the start of last season. If anything, what Shough has done to start his career was actually more impressive than what Maye did as a rookie:

Shough: 5-4 record, 7.1 adjusted yards per attempt, 13 total touchdowns, six interceptions
Maye: 3-9 record, 6.3 adjusted yards per attempt, 17 touchdowns, 10 interceptions

The biggest factor working for the Saints is their schedule. They’re slated to face the second-easiest group of opponents in terms of Vegas win totals. That’s due primarily to playing in the soft NFC South, but it’s also the best mark within that division.

Add in the fact that the Saints won four of their final five games last year, and this is a team trending in the right direction. I love the idea of targeting them to win 8+ games and the division, and I’ll have a sprinkle on the NFC as well. It may seem crazy that the Saints can win the conference, but we would’ve said the same thing about New England last year.

Arizona Cardinals: The Bleak Get Bleaker

Win Total Over/Under: 4.5 (Over +125; Under -130)
Fewest Wins: +240

The Cardinals may not be the worst team in the NFL on paper, but it is really hard to envision a scenario where they contend next season. They play in a juggernaut of a division, and that’s just the start of the nightmare that is their schedule. They’ll also play the AFC West and NFC East, two of the other tougher divisions in football, while their standalone games are against the Lions, Saints, and Jets. Outside of getting to play the Jets at home, Arizona likely won’t be favored in a single game all season. Add it all up, and the Cardinals have the hardest strength of schedule by a country mile.

With the Cardinals at the start of a rebuild, it’s easy to envision a scenario where they waive the white flag early and look to land a premium pick in the upcoming draft. If they can pick first or second, it would give them the opportunity to land a franchise-altering quarterback. That’s too appealing a scenario to pass up.

Ultimately, getting to 4 wins for Arizona would be a shock, and they’re my pick to finish with the worst record in the league. I’ll have exposure to both.

Cincinnati Bengals: Is It Finally Their Year?

Win Total Over/Under: 9.5 (Over -140; Under +120)
To Win the AFC North: +230
To Win the AFC: +1400
To Win the Super Bowl: +3000

Look, I completely understand if you feel burned by Cincinnati. They’ve been a buzzy preseason team each year since making it to the 2022Super Bowl, yet they’ve failed to get back to the playoffs in three straight seasons. Two of those seasons were ended by injuries to Joe Burrow, while their defense completely sabotaged them in the other.

Sadly, the defense figures to be an issue again in 2026. The team lost Trey Hendrickson to free agency, and he was the closest thing the Bengals had to a blue-chipper on that side of the ball. They didn’t even have a first-round draft pick to supplement their roster in the draft, though they did use their second- and third-round picks on defenders.

But as long as Burrow can stay on two feet, this is undoubtedly one of the best offenses in football. Offense is more predictable and sustainable year-to-year, while defensive metrics can fluctuate. Some timely turnovers, penalty luck, or missed field goals can all help an otherwise helpless defense get off the field. Having a good offense is more than half the battle.

The Bengals are also set to face the third-easiest schedule in terms of opponent win totals. They’ll have winnable divisional matchups against the Steelers and Browns, and they also draw the AFC South and NFC South. Those are two of the more favorable divisions to face.

Add in a third-place schedule, and the stage is set for the Bengals to return to prominence. Burrow can’t get hurt every year, right?